Banjul, 7 January 2026 – PRESS AFRICA – With less than a year to go before the presidential election scheduled for 5 December 2026, the question of who will succeed the head of the Gambian state is at the heart of public debate. While President Adama Barrow has announced his candidacy for a third term, the political equation remains open, caught between popular support, social discontent, a divided opposition and the emergence of new ambitions. A look at the main issues and the potential candidates.

What about the succession?

President since 2017, Adama Barrow has officially confirmed his intention to seek a new term in 2026. This prospect, however, is met with strong reservations among the public. According to a recent survey, 55% of Gambians believe he should not run again. His candidacy thus reignites the sensitive debate over term limits, all the more so as a constitutional reform initiated in 2020 failed before being definitively rejected in 2024.

The political context remains marked by a degree of instability. While the opposition struggles to regroup, new figures are trying to capitalise on popular discontent and the desire for renewal. The question of Barrow's succession therefore goes beyond the institutional framework: it crystallises questions about the country's democratic future, the legitimacy of power and the deep-seated expectations of the Gambian people.

The potential successors

According to recent polls and the political dynamics observed, three profiles are drawing particular attention ahead of the 2026 vote: Adama Barrow, Talib Ahmed Bensouda and Ousainou Darboe.

Running to succeed himself, the incumbent president relies on the backing of his coalition and the internal endorsement of his party. His case rests essentially on his record in office, notably on infrastructure and reforms. However, a significant share of the electorate has already voiced its opposition to a third term, pointing to the unfulfilled electoral promises of 2016 and the failure of the constitutional reform.

For his part, Talib Ahmed Bensouda, the current mayor of Kanifing, is making notable progress in the polls, which credit him with around 18% of voting intentions. For many observers, he embodies renewal, a "third space" breaking with the traditional government-versus-opposition divide. Nevertheless, his political project still suffers from limited national visibility and will need to strengthen its resources and political network.

As for Ousainou Darboe, the historic opposition leader, he remains a credible opponent, with long political experience and undeniable national recognition. However, his party is struggling to establish itself as a genuine majority alternative, fuelling scepticism among part of the population about its capacity for renewal.

Another scenario also remains possible: the emergence of an "outsider", a new, independent figure, or one drawn from diverse political leanings, capable of tapping into discontent, weariness with the traditional political system and the desire for profound change.

The uncertainties of a transfer of power

Several factors make the outcome of the vote uncertain. The first is the fragmentation of the opposition: despite the multiplicity of parties and potential candidacies, the opposition remains divided, which weakens the formation of a united front against the incumbent. The second is the advantages of the outgoing power: Adama Barrow benefits from institutional levers, a solid network of supporters and a visible record, even if it remains contested. Beyond these two factors, there is also a divided and undecided electorate: according to polls, around 29% of voters remain undecided, a segment that could upend forecasts if effectively mobilised. Finally, there is the institutional puzzle: the failure of the constitutional reform on term limits weakens the democratic consensus and fuels doubts about the strength of institutions.

What kind of Gambia on the evening of 5 December 2026?

Barrow's succession is not simply a choice of person. It raises structural questions for The Gambia's future: respect for democratic commitments, notably term limits and institutional renewal; the ability to offer a credible, coherent and inclusive programme that addresses the challenges of development, employment, public services and social justice; the will to encourage political renewal, both generational and ideological, in order to move away from the personalisation of power; and, lastly, the consolidation of genuine political pluralism, based on strong parties, real democratic debate and an active civil society.

As 5 December 2026 approaches, the equation of Adama Barrow's succession therefore remains complex. While the outgoing president is banking on his record and on the unity of his coalition, the distrust of part of public opinion, the rise of alternative figures such as Talib Bensouda and the uncertainties surrounding the opposition's reorganisation open up real room for political renewal.

Ultimately, more than the personalities of the candidates, it is the credibility of the political programme, and its ability to bring people together and offer concrete prospects, that could determine The Gambia's future. In this respect, the December 2026 electoral contest looks set to be more open and more fiercely fought than it was five years ago.

Writer: BAWA ALLAH Khadidjatou A.